http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20130518/SPT04/305180107/Cingrani-go-back-work-Triple-A

 

Cingrani to go back to work in Triple-A

May 18, 2013

Written by John Fay

 

PHILADELPHIA — The Reds thanked Tony Cingrani for his six starts and sent him back to the minors Saturday with a mandate: Improve your off-speed pitches.

“We talked to him,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He did a great job for the limited experience that he had. It was a great learning experience, but he also helped us at the same time. I talked to him and so did (pitching coach Bryan Price). He knows he needs a secondary pitch.”

Cingrani, the 23-year-old left-hander, was optioned back to Triple-A Louisville. Infielder Neftali Soto was called up to take his roster spot. Soto was hitting .269 with three home runs and 16 RBI for Triple-A Louisville.

Soto’s stay is likely to be short. The Reds will have to make a move to get Johnny Cueto back on the active roster for his start on Monday.

Cingrani’s start Friday was indicative of his over-reliance on the fastball. He got burned on a 3-1 fastball to Jimmy Rollins. Rollins hit it out for a two-run homer. He hitters could sit on the fastball because Cingrani has had trouble commanding his secondary pitches.

Cingrani will work on his off-speed pitches, but the Reds haven’t mandated that he threw a certain number of sliders and change-ups in his Louisville starts.

“No, because we don’t want him to learn how to lose,” Baker said. “We want him to get comfortable with it on the sideline so he can take it to the game. Everyone says throw the breaking ball. Everyone doesn’t have the delivery or the hand size to throw certain pitches.

“So we’re going to have to come up with something else to get them off the fastball. His change-up is getting better.”

Cingrani threw 83.6 percent fastballs, 10.5 percent sliders and 5.9 percent change-ups in his starts for the Reds.

“I’ve got to command the strike zone with everything,” he said.

Cingrani went 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in his six starts.

“He learned a lot,” Baker said. “Good kid. He’ll be back”

 

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

By Jason A. Churchill & Chris Crawford 
ESPN Insider

The 2013 draft is almost upon us, and we thought it would be a good time to take a step back and look at what each organization needs.

While you've surely heard that MLB teams typically don't draft for need in the first round, they will adjust their strategy based on the strengths and weaknesses of the system, as well as what is available.

With that in mind, we've highlighted the strength and weakness of each organization, including Keith Law's top 10 prospects for each one. We've also provided a breakdown of the type of player each club tends to favor in the draft. For example, the Phillies have long been known to favor athletic high school prospects, while the Mariners have favored college players in recent years.

Really, this is the only MLB draft primer you will need.

 

 

NL East: Team targets for '13 draft

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Atlanta Braves
Pick: 31
Bonus pool: $4.5223M

System strength

The Braves are pitching-heavy, led by right-handers J.R. Graham and last year's first-round pick, Lucas Sims, with hard-throwing Mauricio Cabrera next in line if he can improve his command. Atlanta also has a trio of left-handed starters who should pitch in the big leagues at some point in Sean Gilmartin, Alex Wood and Luis Merejo.

ATL top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Julio Teheran	RHP
2. J.R. Graham	RHP
3. Lucas Sims	RHP
4. Mauricio Cabrera	RHP
5. Christian Bethancourt	C
6. Alex Wood	LHP
7. Sean Gilmartin	LHP
8. Luis Merejo	LHP
9. Jose Peraza	SS
10. Evan Gattis	LF/C

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Lucas Sims, RHP	21
2011 Sean Gilmartin, LHP	28
2010 Matt Lipka, SS	35

System weaknesses

Unfortunately, the Braves haven't drafted well the past few years -- particularly in the first round, and with trades and some promotions, they no longer have one of the better systems in baseball. Specifically, they are weak in the outfield and in the middle infield, with Jose Pereza the only representative in Law's top 10.

Draft strategy

If you're from the Southeast, and you play baseball, you've got a great chance of being picked by the Braves. No team scouts the region harder than Atlanta, and five of its past seven first picks have come from the region. There's been a slight lean toward prep players since Tony DeMacio took over as scouting director in 2007, but it hasn't been as dominant lately, and the Braves took college players with their first 29 picks in 2011.

Notable No. 7 Picks 
1984: Greg Maddux, RHP (106.8 WAR)

Possible fits

Chris Anderson | RHP, Jacksonville: Anderson hasn't been dominant lately like he was in the first six weeks, but with his raw ability and the Braves' player development system, he could turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Travis Demeritte | SS, Winder-Barrow High School (Winder, Ga.): Demeritte will have to change positions at the next level, but he should hit enough to stick at the hot corner. There's plus-power potential in his bat, and he has the skill set -- and location -- that the Braves often covet.

Billy McKinney | OF, West Plano (Tex.) HS: McKinney may be the best pure hitter of any high school bat this year, and would be given every chance to develop, with the Braves outfield locked up for the next few years.

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Miami Marlins
Pick: 6
Bonus pool: $9.5031M

System strength

Miami ranked No. 16 overall in Law's rankings during the winter, and despite boasting three solid young outfielders in Christian Yelich (No. 6 overall), Jake Marisnick and Marcell Ozuna, pitching is the strength. After Jose Fernandez, left-handers Justin Nicolino, Andrew Heaney and Adam Conley should be big leaguers at some point.

System weaknesses

MIA top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Christian Yelich	CF
2. Jose Fernandez	RHP
3. Justin Nicolino	LHP
4. Jake Marisnick	OF
5. Andrew Heaney	LHP
6. Adam Conley	LHP
7. Marcell Ozuna	OF
8. Adeiny Hechavarria	SS
9. J.T. Realmuto	C
10. Derek Dietrich	IF

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Andrew Heaney, LHP	9
2011 Jose Fernandez, RHP	14
2010 Christian Yelich, OF	23

Other than Yelich, who has a chance to stick in center, the Fish lack middle-of-the-field depth, particularly at shortstop and catcher. Also, there is little near-ready help anywhere on the field, including pitching, where even college draftees Heaney and Conley aren't likely to be ready for a year or so.

Draft strategy

This is anyone's guess. The state of the franchise suggests the need to hit big in the draft -- so the Marlins can avoid the free-agent market as much as possible -- but the financial side may lead them away from going for the best player available and toward sprinkling their bonus pool throughout the first few rounds. Historically, they have gone to high school for the first round -- every year from 2007 through 2011, including the previous time they selected at No. 6, when they tabbed high school catcher Kyle Skipworth.

Notable No. 6 Picks 
2002: Zack Greinke, RHP (32.4 WAR)
1992: Derek Jeter, SS (72.3 WAR)
1985: Barry Bonds, OF (162.5 WAR)

Possible fits

Colin Moran, 3B | North Carolina: The Marlins lack major league talent, so it makes sense for the club to target college players early. It's unlikely Kris Bryant gets to them, but Moran could.

Hunter Renfroe, RF | Mississippi State: Renfroe fits the college mold, of course, and could sign for below-slot at No. 6. DJ Peterson also could fit here.

Braden Shipley, RHP | Nevada: After Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray, Shipley may be the fastest mover among college arms without the club that drafts him giving up the chance for some upside.

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New York Mets
Pick: 11
Bonus pool: $6.99M

System strength

The Mets have done as good a job as anyone at acquiring upper-echelon prospects through trade, picking up three of Law's top 100 prospects the past two years in Zach Wheeler (No.13), Travis D'Arnaud (No. 14) and Noah Syndergaard (No. 97). They also have done well in the past few drafts, picking up intriguing offensive talents such as Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini.

System weaknesses

NYM top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Zack Wheeler	RHP
2. Travis d'Arnaud	C
3. Noah Syndergaard	RHP
4. Brandon Nimmo	OF
5. Gavin Cecchini	SS
6. Wilmer Flores	3B
7. Rafael Montero	RHP
8. Domingo Tapia	RHP
9. Jacob deGrom	RHP
10. Hansel Robles	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Gavin Cecchini, SS	12
2011 Brandon Nimmo, RF	13
2010 Matt Harvey, RHP	7

Outside of the "big three," the Mets don't have much depth in the system, particularly offensively. Nimmo was the only outfield prospect to make Law's top 10 for the club, and there isn't very much in terms of power outside of D'Arnaud. The Mets have some pitching depth, but they lack an above-average left-handed pitching prospect.

Draft strategy

Under GM Sandy Alderson, the club has shown a strong lean toward prep prospects, taking them in the first round the past two seasons. The Mets also have been aggressive in the later rounds, with an even split of college and prep players in their first 10 selections.

Notable No. 11 Picks 
2006: Max Scherzer, RHP (12.4 WAR)
2005: Andrew McCutchen, OF (19.9 WAR)

Possible fits

Austin Wilson | OF, Stanford: Wilson missed essentially the first half of the season because of a stress reaction in his elbow, but has hit well in his return. With the Mets' dire outfield situation, Wilson's skill set would be a welcome addition.

Dominic Smith | 1B, Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.): The Mets have gone the prep-bat route with their past two first-round picks, and Smith offers the best offensive upside of any high school hitter in this class.

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Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: 16
Bonus pool: $6.0451M

System strength

The Phillies don't have a lot going on in their system that would suggest they have strength in a particular area. Their top talents are left-handers Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan, with some hope at shortstop and catcher down the line. They do possess two projected big league third basemen in Maikel Franco and Cody Asche, the latter of whom is within a year or so of the majors.

System weaknesses

PHI top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Adam Morgan	LHP
2. Jesse Biddle	LHP
3. Roman Quinn	SS
4. Maikel Franco	3B
5. Tommy Joseph	C
6. Ethan Martin	RHP
7. Jonathan Pettibone	RHP
8. Cody Asche	3B
9. Kenny Giles	RHP
10. Larry Greene	1B

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Shane Watson, RHP	40
2011 Larry Greene, OF	39
2010 Jesse Biddle, LHP	27

Depth. The Phillies don't have the kind of depth that good farm systems possess, and they are devoid of promising young talent everywhere on the field, including pitching, as neither Morgan nor Biddle are considered No. 1 or No. 2 starters, and Shane Watson and Mitch Gueller are years away.

Draft strategy

The Phillies have gone the route of the high school player with their previous six first-round picks and 12 of their past 13. They've spread out the selections among pitching and position players in that span, with mixed results. Considering the club's current position at the major league level and the lack of near-ready, impact help, their recent strategy could go by the wayside in favor of the best college hitter on the board in hopes of getting that pick to the majors sooner than later.

Notable No. 16 Picks 
2002: Nick Swisher, 1B/OF (21.8 bWAR)
1997: Lance Berkman, 1B/OF (52.5 bWAR
1974: Lance Parrish, C (39.3 bWAR)

Possible fits

J.P. Crawford, SS | Lakewood High School (Calif.) Crawford could go in the top 10 to 12 picks, but the Phillies could see big value in adding the draft's best shortstop prospect, giving the club a future option to replace Jimmy Rollins.

Ryan Boldt, OF | Red Wing (Minn.) High School: Boldt could be the best player on the board, and might not last to this spot if clubs see his knee injury as minor or even a nonfactor in the long run.

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Washington Nationals
Pick: 68
Bonus pool: $2.7372M

System strength

The Nationals have upside pitching, a couple of athletic outfielders and a corner bat seasoning in their system, but there's not a lot of depth in any one area. Including their 25-man roster, the one organizational strength is pitching.

WSH top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Anthony Rendon	3B
2. Brian Goodwin	CF
3. Lucas Giolito	RHP
4. A.J. Cole	RHP
5. Nathan Karns	RHP
6. Matt Skole	1B
7. Christian Garcia	RHP
8. Carlos Rivero	3B
9. Matt Purke	LHP
10. Michael Taylor	CF

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Lucas Giolito, RHP	16
2011 Alex Meyer, RHP	23
2011 Anthony Rendon, 3B	6

System weaknesses

There are few up-the-middle options at catcher and either middle-infield spot for the Nationals below their big league club. Their pitching also lacks the left-handed variety, with Matt Purke the lone exception among their better talents.

Draft strategy

High school, college, pitcher, hitter, it doesn't matter; the Nationals will take the best player on their board and pay him if they believe it's a value. Not having a selection until No. 68 overall suggests they'll sit back and hope for someone to fall.

Notable No. 68 picks
1999: John Lackey, RHP (24.7 WAR)

Possible fits

Tucker Neuhaus, SS | Wharton HS (Tampa) Andy McGuire could be a possibility here, too, as could Riley Unroe, the top middle infielders who figure to go off the board between the second and fourth rounds.

Jake Brentz, LHP | Parkway South High School (Manchester, Mo.) Brentz, Hunter Green or Austin Nicely could serve as upside plays for the Nationals at No. 68.

 

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Chicago Cubs
Pick: 2
Bonus pool: $10.557M

System strength

The Cubs have quickly added promising talents to their system under the new regime, boasting a number of future bats with upside, including Jorge Soler, Alberto Almora and Javier Baez, who was acquired via the draft under the previous administration. Jeimer Candelario also offers upside, despite greater risk, as do sluggers Rock Shoulders and Dan Vogelbach, who should be able to team with Anthony Rizzoto man first base for the next decade. Between Baez, Candalario and Arismendy Alcantara -- and Starlin Castro in the big leagues -- the club is likely taken care of long term at shortstop, too.

CHC top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Javier Baez	SS
2. Albert Almora	CF
3. Jorge Soler	RF
4. Arodys Vizcaino	RHP
5. Jeimer Candelario	3B
6. Duane Underwood	RHP
7. Juan Carolos Paniagua	RHP
8. Pierce Johnson	RHP
9. Paul Blackburn	SS
10. Arismendy Alcantara	SS

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Albert Almora, OF	6
2011 Javier Baez, SS	9
2010 Hayden Simpson, RHP	16

System weaknesses

The Cubs lack organizational depth or a future answer at catcher, but their greatest weakness appears to be starting pitching, despite the presence of right-handers Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Juan Carlos Paniagua and Pierce Johnson. They'll get the chance to add college pitching in this draft, and if they play their cards right may have a chance to add upside in a high school arm early on Day 2.

Draft strategy

Last June was the Cubs' first draft under president Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and scouting director Jason McLeod, but the group's history -- in Boston and San Diego -- suggests they mix it up in terms of upside, polish and quick returns. They've rarely drafted this high, however, so there will be opportunities they haven't had much of in the past, which may make them somewhat unpredictable.

Notable No. 2 picks 
2005: Alex Gordon, 3B (19.2 WAR)
1967: Reggie Jackson, OF (74.0 WAR)
2004: Justin Verlander, RHP (37.5 WAR)

Possible fits

Jonathan Gray, RHP | Oklahoma: Gray or Mark Appel would immediately become the organization's top pitching prospect.

Mark Appel, RHP | Stanford: Not only would Appel be the club's top overall prospect upon signing, he might become their No. 2 or 3 starter as early as April, replacing Matt Garza, who is slated for free agency.

Kris Bryant, 3B | San Diego: Bryant is likely the club's first alternative to one of the two pitchers.

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Cincinnati Reds
Picks: 27, 39
Bonus pool: $6.0467M

System strength

The Reds have some elite young arms at the big league level, and there's help on the way on the farm, too. Cincinnati had three hurlers placed in Keith Law's top 100 prospects of 2013, including Robert Stephenson (No. 48), Daniel Corcino (No. 72) and recent call-up Tony Cingrani (98), with arms like Nick Travieso and Ismael Guillon in the wings, as well. They also have some talented outfielders in the system, led by center fielder Billy Hamilton (No. 30), the fastest player in all of baseball.

System weaknesses

CIN top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Billy Hamilton	CF
2. Robert Stephenson	RHP
3. Daniel Corcino	RHP
4. Tony Cingrani	LHP
5. Jesse Winker	RF
6. Nick Travieso	RHP
7. Jonathan Reynoso	CF
8. Ismael Guillon	LHP
9. Tanner Rahier	3B
10. Daniel Langfield	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Nicholas Travieso, RHP	14
2011 Robert Stephenson, RHP	27
2010 Yasmani Grandal, C	12

With Hamilton's conversion from shortstop to center, the Reds' system is essentially barren in terms of infield prospects. No middle-infield prospects made Law's top 10 for Cincinnati, and third baseman Tanner Rahier was the only infielder to make the cut at all. There's also not much pop in the system; most of the better bats project as average to below-average power hitters at the next level.

Draft strategy

In GM Walt Jocketty's time with scouting director Chris Buckley, we've seen Cincinnati be aggressive early and often with prep players. The Reds have taken high school pitchers with their past two first-round selections (Stephenson with pick No. 27 in 2011, Travieso with pick No. 14 in 2012) and last year Cincinnati took high school players with three of its first four picks.

Notable No. 27 picks 
1967: Vida Blue, LHP (45.5 WAR)

Possible fits

Devin Williams | RHP, Hazelwood (Mo.) West HS: The Reds love hard-throwing right-handed pitchers, and Williams fits that mold, with more coming as he fills out. He's raw, but the Reds' pitching depth would allow his right arm to develop over the next few years.

Blake Taylor | LHP, Dana Hills HS (Dana Point, Tenn.): Taylor is one of the youngest prospects in the draft -- he won't be 18 until August 17 -- and, like Williams, offers projection, though he'll have to develop a third pitch.

Tim Anderson | SS, East Central Community College: Cincinnati has very little up the middle in the system, and Anderson has the athleticism and instincts to keep him at shortstop with above-average offensive capabilities.

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Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: 54
Bonus pool: $3.9446M

System strength

If the Brewers have a strength, it's pitching depth, with each of their top five prospects making their way on the mound. None of them bring No. 1 starter upside, however, and a few are believed to fit better in the bullpen for the long haul.

System weaknesses

MIL top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Wily Peralta	RHP
2. John Hellweg	RHP
3. Jimmy Nelson	RHP
4. Taylor Jungmann	RHP
5. Tyler Thornburg	RHP
6. Tyrone Taylor	OF
7. Clint Coulter	C
8. Mitch Haniger	OF
9. Orlando Arcia	SS
10. Hunter Morris	1B

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Clint Coulter, C	27
2011 Taylor Jungmann, RHP	12
2010 Dylan Covey, RHP	14

The club lacks upside talents all over the field and at all levels of their system, with the few exceptions including 2012 first-round pick Clint Coulter and outfielder Mitch Haniger. The Brewers do not have outfielders with big league futures, nor is there any marked depth up the middle.

Draft strategy

The Brewers are all over the map in the first round, going prep player just twice since tabbing Brett Lawrie in 2008, most of those pitchers. The trend did flip a bit last year when three hitters were taken at picks No. 27, 28 and 38 overall, but considering the club's needs and the strength of the 2013 class, they may get back to pitching, especially since their first selection is not until No. 54 overall.

Notable No. 54 picks 
1997: Randy Wolf, LHP (24.1 WAR)

Possible fits

Garrett Williams, LHP | Calvary Baptist Academy (Shreveport, La.): Williams brings some upside to the table, as well as adding a long-term, left-handed pitching option, something the club does not presently boast. Ian Clarkin could also fit.

Jonathon Crawford, RHP | Florida: Crawford may end up in the bullpen, but could have closer stuff if his fastball gets back to the mid-90s. At No. 54, he could fit, even if he can't start. The same could be said for Ole Miss right-hander Bobby Wahl. Dallas Baptist right-hander Jake Johansen, who has drawn dozens of scouts to some of his April and May scouts as he's sitting 94-98 into the late innings, also may fit the bill.

Hunter Dozier, 3B | Stephen F. Austin: Dozier, along with prep shortstops Oscar Mercado of Gaither HS (Tampa), Jan Hernandez of the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (P.R.) and Riley Unroe from Desert Ridge High School in Arizona could also fit in the second round.

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Pittsburgh Pirates
Picks: 9, 14
Bonus pool: $8.8846M

System strength

Few teams can match the Pirates' power pitching prospects, with Gerrit Cole (No. 8 on Law's top 100) and Jameson Taillon (No. 20) and Luis Heredia (No. 84) leading the charge. Pittsburgh also has some intriguing outfielders in the system, including Gregory Polanco (No. 55), Josh Bell and Barrett Barnes. It's a front-loaded system, but their top five prospects compete with any team in baseball.

System weaknesses

PIT top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Gerrit Cole	RHP
2. Jameson Taillon	RHP
3. Alen Hanson	SS
4. Gregory Polanco	CF
5. Luis Heredia	RHP
6. Josh Bell	RF
7. Barrett Barnes	OF
8. Nick Kingham	RHP
9. Wyatt Mathisen	C
10. Clayton Holmes	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Mark Appel, RHP	8
2011 Gerrit Cole RHP	1
2010 Jameson Taillon, RHP	2

The system isn't particularly strong in the infield, with only shortstop Alen Hanson placing in Law's top 10. And while the system has some potential impact bats like Bell, there's very little in terms of players who could contribute in the next year or two.

Draft strategy

This will be Joe DelliCarri's second draft as scouting director, but under GM Neil Huntington the Bucs have definitely shown they are willing to take risks in the draft, with a preference toward pitching. Pittsburgh has taken a pitcher with its past three first-round picks, all hard-throwing right-handers. The Pirates have also drafted some perceived difficult signings over the past several years, including Mark Appel last year and Bell in 2012, the latter reportedly sending letters to clubs asking not to be drafted. Ironically, it was Appel who they failed to sign.

Notable No. 9 picks 
1999: Barry Zito, LHP (35.5 WAR)

Notable No. 14 picks 
1993: Derrek Lee, 1B (34.1 WAR)
1988: Tino Martinez, 1B (29.0 WAR)

Possible fits

Kohl Stewart | RHP, St. Pius X HS (Houston): If he is still on the board, he would fit the Pirates' love of high-upside pitchers with pick No 9.

Trey Ball | LHP, New Castle (Ind.) HS: He's more likely than Stewart to be on the board when the Pirates pick and offers comparable upside.

DJ Peterson | 1B/3B, New Mexico: If the Bucs decide to go the "safe" route, Peterson could be the guy, as he is relatively close to the majors, and the club could use bats that fit that profile.

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St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: 19, 28
Bonus pool: $6.9079M

System strength

No team matches the quantity or quality of the Cardinals' farm system, and they were justifiably graded the top system in baseball by Law. St. Louis has the best outfield prospect in baseball in Oscar Taveras (No. 2 on Law's top 100) and as much pitching depth as anyone in baseball with arms like Carlos Martinez (No. 39), Michael Wacha and Tyrell Jenkins along with the recently promoted Shelby Miller (No. 21) and Trevor Rosenthal (No. 57).

STL top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Oscar Taveras	OF
2. Shelby Miller	RHP
3. Carlos Martinez	RHP
4. Trevor Rosenthal	RHP
5. Kolten Wong	2B
6. Tyrell Jenkins	RHP
7. Michael Wacha	RHP
8. Matt Adams	1B
9. Carson Kelly	3B
10. Anthony Garcia	OF

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Michael Wacha, RHP	19
2011 Kolten Wong, 2B	22
2010 Zack Cox, 3B	25

System weaknesses

I'm not sure if you'd call any part of the Cardinals' system weak, but there's not much left-handed pitching, and St. Louis doesn't have anyone you'd consider a shortstop of the future in the system.

Draft strategy

The Cardinals have generally chosen to play things safe in the first round, drafting college players with four of their five Day 1 picks last year and haven't taken a prep player with their first selection since Miller in 2009. St. Louis has been much more aggressive in the later rounds under GM John Mozeliak, drafting presumed difficult signings like Carson Kelly, Charlie Tilson and Tyrell Jenkins over the past three drafts.

Notable No. 19 picks
1999: Alex Rios, OF (26.8 WAR)
1983: Roger Clemens, RHP (140.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Alex Gonzalez | RHP, Oral Roberts: Gonzalez would be similar to the Wacha selection last year, but would be solid value at 19 with his feel for pitching and plus slider.

Devin Williams | RHP, Hazelwood (Mo.) West High School: Some believe that there is local pressure for the Cardinals to take the local kid, but it's more about his arm strength and athleticism that make him a good fit in the organization.

Tim Anderson | SS, East Central Community College: The Cardinals aren't as strong up the middle as they are everywhere else, and Anderson's speed and hit tool could be intriguing at 19 or 28.

Ryan Boldt | OF, Red Wing (Minn.) HS: Because the Cardinals have two early picks, St. Louis could be one of a few teams that take a chance on Boldt -- who has battled injuries but offers plus tools -- if they chose to play it safe with one of their other first-round selections.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: 15
Bonus pool: $7.2296M

System strength

The Diamondbacks have two of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Tyler Skaggs (No. 12 on Keith Law's top 100) and Archie Bradley (No. 29), and there's pitching depth as well with left-handers David Holmberg and Andrew Chafin and right-hander Anthony Meo also not far from contributing. Arizona also has one of the best third base prospects in baseball in Matt Davidson and plenty of depth in the middle infield with Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings, among others.

ARI top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Tyler Skaggs	LHP
2. Archie Bradley	RHP
3. Matt Davidson	3B
4. Adam Eaton	CF
5. Stryker Trahan	C
6. David Holmberg	LHP
7. Chris Owings	SS
8. Didi Gregorius	SS
9. Andrew Charin	LHP
10. Anthony Meo	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Stryker Trahan, C	26
2011 Trevor Bauer, RHP	28
2010 Barret Loux, RHP	6

System weaknesses

After Davidson, their next best power prospect is 2012 first-rounder Stryker Trahan, who won't be able to contribute for several years. The Diamondbacks also are severely lacking in outfield prospects, withAlfredo Marte representing the best of a well-below average group.

Draft strategy

Since Kevin Towers took over as GM and named Ray Montgomery his scouting director, Arizona seemingly has taken a "load up" strategy to the draft, picking pitchers with five of their first six picks in 2011 and then taking only two in the first 10 rounds of 2012. The Diamondbacks have shown a willingness to spend though, going over slot to sign Trahan last year and well over slot to sign Bradley and Trevor Bauer the year before.

Notable No. 15 Picks 
2000: Chase Utley, 2B (56.2 WAR)
1971: Jim Rice, OF (47.2 WAR)

Possible fits

Hunter Renfroe | OF, Mississippi State: Renfroe has been among the best offensive players in college baseball this year and would immediately become the Diamondbacks' best offensive prospect in their system.

Aaron Judge | OF, Fresno State: It's been an up-and-down year for Judge, but he may have more raw power than any outfielder in the class and projects to be an above-average right fielder at the next level.

Alex Gonzalez | RHP, Oral Roberts: Gonzalez doesn't have great pure stuff, but he has one of the best sliders of any pitcher in the draft and gets rave reviews for his makeup and feel for pitching.

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Colorado Rockies
Pick: 3
Bonus pool: $10.1994M

System strength

The Rockies' system is far from loaded, but they aren't without their interesting prospects. Last year's first-round pick, David Dahl, had an impressive debut last season and came in at No. 37 on Law's top 100 prospects. Colorado has some intriguing infield prospects, including shortstop Trevor Story (No. 86) and the recently called-up Nolan Arenado.

System weaknesses

COL top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. David Dahl	OF
2. Trevor Story	SS
3. Nolan Arenado	3B
4. Eddie Butler	RHP
5. Kyle Parker	1B
6. Edwar Cabrera	RHP
7. Chad Bettis	RHP
8. Tyler Anderson	LHP
9. Tim Wheeler	CF
10. Tyler Matzek	LHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 David Dahl, OF	10
2011 Tyler Anderson, LHP	20
2010 Kyle Parker, RF	26

The Rockies have been hit by injuries at the lower levels as much as any team in baseball, and that's a large reason why the system came in just 23rd in Law's team rankings. There's nothing resembling a frontline starter in the system, and even the better bats project more as solid complimentary type players, outside of perhaps Dahl.

Draft strategy

Whatever the Rockies do with their first-round pick, you can generally bet on the opposite in the next round. Over the last three years, the Rockies have alternated between high-upside, high-risk reward players with safe, limited upside picks in the first and second rounds. We saw this in full effect last year, with low-upside picks like second rounder Eddie Butler and fourth rounder Tom Murphy, and upside selections like Dahl, third-round pick Max White and fifth rounder Ryan Warner.

Notable No. 3 Picks 
2006: Evan Longoria, 3B (32.2 WAR)
1977: Paul Molitor, SS (75.5 WAR)
1973: Robin Yount, SS (77.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Kris Bryant | 3B, San Diego: Bryant is the name most associated with the Rockies right now, and his plus-plus power could lead to big numbers in Coors Field, be it at third or in right field.

Jonathan Gray | RHP, Oklahoma: While the Rockies have been connected almost entirely to offensive players, if the Astros go another direction and the Cubs take Appel, it's tough to see Colorado passing on Gray and his high 90's fastball and wipeout slider.

Austin Meadows | OF, Grayson (Ga.) HS: If Bryant were off the board -- or if Colorado has concerns with Bryant's long-term position -- Meadows would be the most likely position player they would take.

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Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick:18
Bonus pool: $5.2117M

System strength

The Dodgers' system is about as strong as any that rank in the middle of the pack, considering the balance between bats and arms, and near-ready help vs. long-term talent. The club does lack depth in the upper minors, however, and do have some holes in terms of impact prospects. In general, there's more pitching than anything else, and one of their top prospects is right-hander Zach Lee, who is within a year of the major leagues.

System weaknesses

LAD top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Corey Seager	SS/3B
2. Zach Lee	RHP
3. Yasiel Puig	OF
4. Matt Magill	RHP
5. Joc Pederson	OF
6. Onelki Garcia	LHP
7. Chris Reed	LHP
8. Ross Stripling	RHP
9. Chris Withrow	RHP
10. Zach Bird	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Corey Seager, SS	18
2011 Chris Reed, LHP	13
2010 Zach Lee, RHP	28

The Dodgers, despite their top prospect being third baseman Corey Seager, lack options around the infield, as Seager represents the lone infielder in Law's top 10 (see table). Such a problem is magnified when considering the aging veterans manning the infield at Dodger Stadium this season.

Draft strategy

Historically, especially when front office executive Logan White was running the draft, the Dodgers went for upside in the high school player and haven't strayed from that too much the past five years, with lefty Chris Reed (2011) and compensation-round pick Aaron Miller (2009) representing the lone college selections in the first round. If the club plans to remain aggressive with its payroll, they may feel they can stay on that path and wait for high-ceiling talents.

Notable No. 18 Picks 
1996: R.A. Dickey, RHP | 1996 (14.6 WAR)
1994: Willie Wilson, OF | 1994 (45.9 WAR)

Possible fits

Trey Ball | LHP, New Castle (Ind.) HS: Ball is the traditional Dodgers pick; a high-upside, left-handed power pitcher.

Matt Krook | LHP, St, Ignatius Prep (San Francisco): Krook has the best prep curveball in the class -- possibly any recent class -- and while he doesn't have the present velocity of Ball or right-hander Phil Bickford, he's a nice consolation prize.

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San Diego Padres
Pick: 13
Bonus pool: $6.8808M

System strength

The Padres have done a good job the past four years collecting high-upside prep pitching talent via the draft and a key trade, including left-handers Max Fried and Robbie Erlin and right-handers Joe Ross,Casey Kelly, Zach Eflin and Walker Weickel. Injuries have tossed a wrench into the development of the group, but it remains the organizational strength.

System weaknesses

With the exception of outfielder Rymer Liriano, who is out of the year after having Tommy John surgery in February, and catcher Austin Hedges, the Padres' farm system lacks depth in the way of hitters, though it's worth noting the recent graduations of first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal and second baseman Jedd Gyorko. Shortstop is a particularly shallow position.

SD top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Austin Hedges	C
2. Max Fried	LHP
3. Rymer Liriano	SS
4. Casey Kelly	RHP
5. Jedd Gyorko	3B
6. Joe Ross	RHP
7. Robbie Erlin	LHP
8. Walker Weickel	RHP
9. Zach Eflin	RHP
10. Matt Wisler	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Max Fried, LHP	7
2011 Cory Spangenberg, 3B	10
2010 Karsten Whitson, RHP	9

Draft strategy

The Padtres have typically leaned towards prep players in the the first round in recent years, the one exception is second baseman Corey Spangenberg at No. 10 overall in 2011, though that can be somewhat attributed to the fact that as a compensation selection for failing to sign 2010 first rounder Karsten Whitson, the pick was unprotected, which meant they wouldn't get another comp pick if they failed to sign Spangenburg.

While there isn't much reason to believe such a philosophy will necessarily change, the 2013 class could provide the Padres and Madison the opportunity to help the big league roster with a college player.

Notable No. 13 picks 
2003: Aaron Hill, SS | (23.9 WAR)
1994: Paul Konerko, C | (29.7 WAR)
1991: Manny Ramirez, 3B | (69.1 WAR)

Possible fits

Trey Ball | LHP, New Castle (Ind.) HS: The Padres have young pitching, though some of it is injured, but Ball may bring too much upside to pass up at No. 13. Other prep arms that could fit here -- albeit on the premise that they'd sign for below-slot bonuses -- include Phil Bickford, Devin Williams and Matt Krook.

Clint Frazier | OF, Loganville High School: If Frazier gets this far it may make the Padres' decision easy, though Lakewood (Calif.) HS shortstop J.P. Crawford may be in play, too.

Hunter Renfroe | RF, Mississippi State: If the club looks for a college bat, Renfroe or Austin Wilson could fit the mold as athletic right fielders with power and strong throwing arms.

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San Francisco Giants
Pick: 25
Bonus pool: $4.7122M

System strength

The Giants have several quality pitching prospects, led by Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn, with Chris Stratton, Mike Kickham and Martin Augusta next in line. San Francisco also has one of the best relief prospects in the game in right-hander Heath Embree, who could be the Giants' closer of the future.

SF top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Kyle Crick	RHP
2. Clayton Blackburn	RHP
3. Chris Stratton	RHP
4. Gary Brown	CF
5. Heath Hembree	RHP
6. Mac Williamson	OF
7. Joe Panik	SS
8. Mike Kickham	LHP
9. Martin Agosta	RHP
10. Andrew Susac	C

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Chris Stratton, RHP	20
2011 Joe Panik, SS	29
2010 Gary Brown, CF	24

System weaknesses

There's not a lot here in terms of bats, with their best position-player prospect -- outfielder Gary Brown -- profiling more as a speedy reserve than an everyday player. There's little here in terms of the middle infield, and the Giants are barren in terms of corner infielders.

Draft strategy

GM Brian Sabean has gone from one of the most prep-heavy drafters in the early 2000's to a strong college lean since John Barr was named scouting director. The Giants have taken college players with their past three first-round picks and have taken only four prep players in the first 10 rounds since 2010. The Giants have also shown a strong lean towards pitching in the past two drafts and took pitchers with seven of their first eight picks in 2012.

Notable No. 25 picks
2009: Mike Trout, OF (12.8 WAR
2002: Matt Cain, RHP (31.7 WAR)

Possible fits

Eric Jagielo | 3B, Notre Dame: The Giants shouldn't consider Pablo Sandoval the long-term answer at third base, and Jagielo would fill a need and provide solid value at pick 25.

Matt Krook | LHP, St. Ignatius HS (San Francisco): San Francisco hasn't taken a prep pitcher with their first pick since Zack Wheeler in 2009 (No. 6 overall), but Krook's mid-90's fastball and plus curveball have had the Giants intrigued with the local kid all spring.

Ryan Eades | RHP, Louisiana State: Eades' stock has dropped over the past few weeks and hasn't shown much consistency, but when he's on he's got a low-90's fastball with good feel for pitching.

 

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Baltimore Orioles
Pick: 22, 37
Bonus pool: $$6.3879

System strength

The Orioles' depth lies in their upper-tier pitching with Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, though Bundy's arm trouble has kept him off the mound this spring. Eduardo Rodriguez provides some long-term rotation hope, and there are bullpen arms on the way, too, as well as infielders in Jonathan Schoop, Nick Delmonico and Adrian Marin.

BAL top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Dylan Bundy	RHP
2. Kevin Gausman	RHP
3. J. Schoop	3B/2B
4. E. Rodriguez	LHP
5. Adrian Marin	SS
6. Nick Delmonico	3B
7. Brendan Kline	RHP
8. L.J. Hoes	OF
9. Josh Hader	LHP
10. Brady Wager	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Kevin Gausman, RHP	4
2011 Dylan Bundy, RHP	4
2010 Manny Machado, SS	3

System weaknesses

Outside of what they already have in the majors, the Orioles lack outfield depth in the minors, with future fourth outfielder L.J. Hoes, the lone OF member of Keith Law's top 10 for the organization. The org chart also shows a lack of talent behind the plate -- not unlike most clubs -- but a safety valve for the future is also a good idea.

Draft strategy

The Orioles have had lots of high picks in recent years and have never shied away from high-profile, high-priced players, such as Bundy and Manny Machado. Last year was the first draft under GM Dan Duquette, and they went with college players with three of their first four picks in 2012, and with eight of their first 10. However, they are picking much later this year and most of the top college players will be gone by then.

Notable No. 22 Picks 
1997: Jayson Werth, OF (22.2 WAR)
1987: Craig Biggio, 2B(64.9 WAR)
1972: Chet Lemon, OF (55.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Phil Bickford | RHP, Oaks Christian HS (Ventura, Calif.): Like Bundy, Bickford fits the profile of the high-upside prep arm, as does Hazelwood (Mo.) HS right-hander Devin Williams.

Matt Krook | LHP, St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.): Krook and New Jersey prep lefty Rob Kaminsky could fit here, giving the club more balance in what is a righty-heavy organization.

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Boston Red Sox
Pick: 7
Bonus pool: $6.8302M

System strength

The Red Sox boast a well-rounded farm system that includes top talents nearing the big leagues and high upside players on the long-term plan. The club has gotten to this point by wisely using resources in the draft, international scouting and trades. If there's a particular strength here it's in the balance between arms and bats, and in terms of timetable. This balance may give the club the ability to simply select the best player available without regard for development time.

System weaknesses

Considering the shape of the current starting rotation and the attrition rate of pitchers in general, the Sox lack depth in this area. Allen Webster and Matt Barnes are close to contributing in the majors, but Anthony Ranaudo has struggled some in pro ball and left-hander Henry Owens is at least two years away. After that, there's a rather large gap in terms of ceiling as well as added risk for the rest of the system's starting pitching prospects.

BOS top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Xander Bogaerts	SS
2. Jackie Bradley Jr.	CF
3. Allen Webster	RHP
4. Matt Barnes	RHP
5. Henry Owens	LHP
6. Deven Marrero	SS
7. Blake Swihart	C
8. Garrin Cecchini	3B
9. Drake Britton	LHP
10. Brian Johnson	LHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	PICK
2012 Deven Marrero, SS	24
2011 Matt Barnes, RHP	19
2010 Kolbrin Vitek, 2B	20

Draft strategy

The Red Sox often ignored slot recommendations in the past, but with the new bonus regulations and a reloading effort in progress the club's strategy in the draft was a bit different a year ago when they went for safer college talents in shortstop Deven Marrero at No. 24 overall and left-hander Brian Johnson seven picks later. Selecting much higher in 2013, however, could push them toward the best player, without regard to how quickly they'll get a return on said investment.

Notable No. 7 Picks 
2006: Clayton Kershaw, LHP (27.0 WAR)
2005: Troy Tulowitzki, SS (28.8 WAR)
2002: Prince Fielder, 1B (22.8 WAR)
1989: Frank Thomas, 1B (73.6 WAR)

Possible fits

Sean Manaea | LHP, Indiana State: With right-hander Clay Buchholz and injury-riddled John Lackey the lone starting pitchers signed beyond 2014, the Red Sox could use pick No. 7 on the best college pitcher on the board. That could be Manaea, assuming Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray don't fall.

Braden Shipley | RHP, Nevada: Manaea's so-so spring could lead them to Shipley, whose been rising up draft boards with a strong season in Reno.

Ryne Stanek | RHP, Arkansas: A year ago, some thought Stanek could be battling for the No. 1 spot. He's had an uneven season for the Razorbacks, but the talent is there.

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New York Yankees
Picks: 26, 32, 33
Bonus pool: $7.9574M

System strength

The Yankees boast the most impressive collection of young catchers in baseball, with Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy pushing for the majors and Austin Romine a rookie. There is also outfield depth in Mason Williams, Tyler Austin and Slade Heathcott, as well as some long-term pitching.

System weaknesses

The Yankees lack young players in the system who can reasonably be expected to contribute before 2015. Their pitching is at least two years away, perhaps longer, and they have seen many pitching prospects spend time on the DL. The other hole is at shortstop, where the club has yet to acquire options that could eventually replace Derek Jeter.

NYY top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Gary Sanchez	C
2. Mason Williams	CF
3. Tyler Austin	RF
4. Slade Heathcott	CF
5. Jose Ramirez	RHP
6. Ty Hensley	RHP
7. Manny Banuelos	LHP
8. Jose Campos	RHP
9. Mark Montgomery	RHP
10. Angelo Gumbs	2B

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Ty Hensley, RHP	30
2011 Dante Bichette Jr., 3B	51
2010 Cito Culver, SS	32

Draft strategy

The Yankees have gone with prep talent early and often in the past several drafts, but with extra picks this year they could mix it up some, especially considering their lack of starting pitching options moving forward.

It's been six years since they selected a college pitcher in the first round (Andrew Brackman), but this is likely the year one or two fall in their lap. Expecting them to load up on college arms, however, probably isn't wise as it hasn't been their preference at any time over the current regime's tenure. If a college bat falls to them, however -- such as Hunter Renfroe, Aaron Judge or Austin Wilson -- the club may pounce.

Notable No. 26 Picks 
1977: Dave Henderson, OF (27.5 WAR)
1990: Alan Trammell, SS (70.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Alex Gonzalez | RHP, Oral Roberts: The club could use an infusion of quick-to-the-majors pitching, especially considering the pending free agency of Phil Hughes and the injuries to top pitching prospect Manny Banuelos and right-hander Michael Pineda. Marshall's Aaron Blair could also be a fit here.

Austin Wilson | OF, Stanford: Among college bats, Wilson, Aaron Judge and DJ Peterson are the most likely to get to the Yankees at No. 26. Wilson could be the club's first long-term right fielder sincePaul O'Neill.

Ryan Boldt | OF, Red Wing (Minn.) HS: Boldt's knee injury could push his stock down a bit -- and possibly to college ball at Nebraska -- but he has some of the best tools in the draft. With three picks in the top 32, the Yankees can take some chances.

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Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: 21, 29
Bonus pool: $6.6949M

System strength

The Rays rely on player development as much as any club in baseball, and it should come as no surprise that they once again have one of the strongest systems in baseball. Tampa Bay placed more pitchers in Keith Law's top 100 than any club in baseball, with Taylor Guerrieri (No.47) Chris Archer (No. 53), Jake Odorizzi (No. 68) and Alex Colome (No. 83) all projecting as above-average starters or better. They also may have the best offensive prospect in Wil Myers (No. 4) and a potential top-of-the-order hitter in shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (No. 78)

System weaknesses

TB top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Wil Myers	RF
2. Taylor Guerrieri	RHP
3. Chris Archer	RHP
4. Jake Odorizzi	RHP
5. Hak-Ju Lee	SS
6. Alex Colome	RHP
7. Richie Shaffer	3B
8. Drew Vettleson	RF
9. Enny Romero	LHP
10. Mikey Mahtook	CF

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Richie Shaffer, 3B	25
2011 Taylor Guerrieri, RHP	24
2010 Joshua Sale, RF	17

It's one of the more complete systems in baseball, though they are slightly limited in terms of corner infield prospects. The Rays also don't have a catcher of the future right now.

Draft strategy

The Rays may be a small-market club, but they have shown a willingness to spend when it comes to the draft under GM Andrew Friedman and scouting director R.J. Harrison. The Rays have a slight prep lean when it comes to early picks, but they have shown a willingness to draft college players early when they are near the top of their board, a la Richie Schaffer with the 25th pick last season. They've also tapped the Pacific Northwest more than any club, taking six players from Washington State since 2010 in the first 10 rounds.

Notable No. 21 Picks 
1974: Rick Sutcliffe, RHP (34.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Nick Ciuffo | C, Lexington (S.C.) HS: Tampa Bay has struggled to get much production from behind the plate for most of its history, and Ciuffo offers plus power and might be the best receiver in the class.

Marco Gonzales | LHP, Gonzaga: He'll never miss a lot of bats, but he has one of the best changeups in the class and could be a fast-track guy with his feel for pitching. (He's also from the Northwest.)

Rob Kaminsky | LHP, St. Joseph's High School (N.J.): Kaminsky doesn't offer the projection that some of the other left-handed arms in this class do, but left-handers who throw in the low 90's with above-average secondary stuff generally don't have to wait too long.

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Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: 10
Bonus pool: $6.3982M

System strength

The Blue Jays still boast elite pitching talent after last winter's trades with the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, including right-handers Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna as well as southpaws Sean Nolin and Matt Smoral. The club also is grooming toolsy outfielders Anthony Alford and the speedy D.J. Davis, both acquired via the 2012 draft.

TOR top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Aaron Sanchez	RHP
2. Robert Osuna	RHP
3. Marcus Stroman	RHP
4. Matt Smoral	LHP
5. Sean Nolin	LHP
6. Anthony Alford	OF
7. D.J. Davis	OF
8. Adonys Cardona	RHP
9. Chase DeJong	RHP
10. Santiago Nessy	C

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 D.J. Davis, OF	17
2011 Tyler Beede, RHP	21
2010 Deck McGuire, RHP	11

System weaknesses

The Blue Jays lack up-the-middle talent with Davis and 20-year-old catchers Santiago Nessy and A.J. Jimenez the only exceptions among their best prospects. Their top shortstop prospect is 20-year-old Christian Lopes, who may not be long for the position

Draft strategy

The Jays have gone for the upside of prep arms on several occasions in the first round over the past three drafts and it's already paid off, as they were able to use Justin Nicolino and Noah Syndergaard in the Marlins and Mets deals. That strategy could be gone now that the club is armed to contend, despite the slow start to the 2013 campaign. In the end, the Blue Jays are likely to go for the best value at No. 10.

Notable No. 10 Picks 
2006: Tim Lincecum (23.3 WAR)
1988: Robin Ventura (55.9 WAR)
1984: Mark McGwire, 1B (62.0 WAR)

Possible fits

Austin Meadows | OF, Grayson (Ga.) HS: With Meadows, the Jays could address two needs: a long-term center fielder and position player with upside.

Reese McGuire | C, Kentwood (Wash.) HS: They've had a crosschecker at most of McGuire's games this spring -- and their area scout has probably seen McGuire more than any other scout in the game.

Clint Frazier | OF, Loganville High School (Ga.): Frazier, despite profiling as a corner outfielder, might be too talented to pass up at No. 10.

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Chicago White Sox
Pick: 17
Bonus pool: $5.3106M

System strength

The White Sox have a few interesting outfield prospects in their system, led by 2012 first-rounder Courtney Hawkins (No. 74 on Keith Law's top 100). Trayce Thompson and Keenyn Walker both have shown the ability to be everyday players, but both are raw.

System weaknesses

CHW top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Courtney Hawkins	OF
2. Carlos Sanchez	IF
3. Andre Rienzo	RHP
4. Trayce Thompson	CF
5. Erik Johnson	RHP
6. Scott Snodgress	LHP
7. Keenyn Walker	CF
8. Joey DiMichele	2B
9. Jared Mitchell	OF
10. Chris Beck	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Courtney Hawkins, OF	13
2011 Keenyn Walker, OF	47
2010 Chris Sale, LHP	13

The White Sox no longer have the worst system in baseball, but there's still a long ways to go. Chicago has very little in terms of pitching in the system, with top arms Erik Johnson and Chris Beck profiling more as back-of-the-rotation starters. They are extremely weak up the middle as a system, with their best middle infield prospect, Carlos Sanchez, likely a second baseman long term.

Draft strategy

Under Scouting Director Doug Loumann, the White Sox have gone from drafting low-upside, safe college picks early to taking toolsy prep bats with their first pick in the past two drafts. With that being said, Chicago has generally avoided high school pitching like the plague and hasn't taken a prep hurler in the first 10 rounds since they took David Holmberg in the third in 2009.

Notable No. 17 picks
2002: Cole Hamels, LHP (30.6 WAR)
1995: Roy Halladay, RHP (60.6 WAR)

Possible fits

Dominic Smith | 1B, Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.): Smith doesn't have the athleticism that previous top picks Hawkins and Walker have, but he does have the hit tool and raw power that they have coveted over the past few classes.

Chris Anderson | RHP, Jacksonville: Anderson fills a need in the Chicago system and also represents what will likely be the best power-pitching college hurler left, something the White Sox don't currently have in their farm.

Aaron Judge | OF, Fresno State: The White Sox have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball right now, and Judge could put up big numbers in the friendly confines of The Cell.

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Cleveland Indians
Pick: 5
Bonus pool: $6.1888M

System strength

The Indians had one of -- if not the -- worst systems in baseball just a few years ago, and they have done an admirable job of rebuilding through good drafts and trades.

The Indians are particularly deep in the middle-infield, with two of the best shortstop prospects in the game in Francisco Lindor (No. 7 on Law's top 100 prospects) and Dorssys Paulino (No. 58), with Jose Ramirez and Ronny Salazar also waiting in the wings. The Indians have used the past few drafts and the international market to acquire some very intriguing young pitchers like Mitch Brown, Kieran Lovegrove and Danny Salazar.

System weaknesses

CLE top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Francisco Lindor	SS
2. Trevor Bauer	RHP
3. Dorssys Paulino	SS
4. Danny Salazar	RHP
5. Jose Ramirez	2B/SS
6. Tyler Naquin	CF
7. Mitch Brown	RHP
8. Kieran Lovegrove	RHP
9. Ronny Rodriguez	SS
10. Tony Wolters	2B/SS

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Tyler Naquin, OF	15
2011 Francisco Lindor, SS	8
2010 Drew Pomeranz, LHP	5

While Cleveland may have some talent in its system, the majority of players are several years away from being able to contribute. The Indians are also fairly limited in terms of outfield prospects, with the best one likely last year's first-round pick Tyler Naquin, who was probably taken a round earlier than his talent warranted.

Draft strategy

The Indians have one of the heaviest collegiate leans in the first round since the turn of the century, having drafted just one prep player with their first pick since 2000 (Lindor, 2011). With that being said, Cleveland has been more aggressive with prep players over the past several years and ended up taking prep players in the second, third and fourth rounds last year.

There's still a definite college lean, but Cleveland has clearly become more open-minded to the prep level in this decade.

Notable No. 5 Picks 
2005: Ryan Braun, LF (35.0 WAR)
2001: Mark Teixeira, 1B (47.8 WAR)
1982: Dwight Gooden, RHP (53.2 WAR)

Possible fits

Colin Moran | 3B, North Carolina: Moran doesn't necessarily fill a need, but he's got the highest hit-tool grade in the class and shouldn't need much seasoning in the minors.

Clint Frazier | OF, Loganville (Ga.) HS: Frazier has put up insane numbers and has more bat speed than any hitter in this draft, college or prep. This would be the likely landing spot if Moran is off the board.

Kris Bryant | 3B, San Diego: There's very little chance of Bryant falling this far, but if he did, this would be where the falling would stop.

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Detroit Tigers
Picks: 20, 39
Bonus pool: $6.4674M

System strength

Detroit has depth in terms of fill-in options in the outfield and bullpen as well at the back end of the rotation. Top prospect Nick Castellanos is a natural third baseman, but if he remains in the outfield in deference to Miguel Cabrera, the club may be set there for the foreseeable future.

System weaknesses

DET top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Nick Castellanos	3B/RF
2. Avisail Garcia	RF
3. Bruce Rondon	RHP
4. Tyler Collins	OF
5. Danny Vasquez	OF
6. Eugenio Suarez	SS
7. Austin Schotts	OF
8. Jake Thompson	RHP
9. Casey Crosby	LHP
10. Montreal Robertston	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Jake Thompson, RHP	91
2011 James McCann, C	76
2010 Nick Castellanos, 3B	44

After Castellanos, this system is mostly comprised of role players, relief arms and back-end starters, sans a few high-risk, high-reward arms that are years from making an impact. Castellanos could be a factor as early as the second half of 2013, likely in the outfield, but could end up at third base once Victor Martinez's contract is up and the club moves Cabrera and Prince Fielder into a 1B/DH time share. That leaves holes in the outfield to go with the glaring lack of middle-infield help anywhere within two years of the majors.

Draft strategy

The Tigers like the prep arm with upside and have gone that route with Jacob Turner and Rick Porcello in recent drafts, but they're not afraid to go the college route for pitching. They have not selected a college position player in the first round since 2001. Having two picks in the top 40 gives the Tigers some financial flexibility, and they could cut a deal at one spot to spend more at the other or later in the draft.

Notable picks at No. 20
1998: CC Sabathia, LHP (56.1 WAR)
1990: Mike Mussina, RHP (83.0 WAR)

Possible fits

Trey Ball | LHP, New Castle (Ind.) HS: Ball isn't expected to get this far, but if he does it might be a no-brainer selection as he is the kind of high-upside prep pitcher the Tigers like.

Kyle Serrano | RHP, Farragut (Tenn.) HS: Serrano lacks the projectable body the Tigers tend to lean toward, but he may move quicker than even Ball and is more likely to be available.

Nick Ciuffo | C, Lexington (S.C.) HS: This would be an atypical choice for Detroit, but the Tigers lack a long-term catching option with more than backup-level promise.

---

Kansas City Royals
Pick: 8
Bonus pool: $8.2907M

System strength

With right-handers Kyle Zimmer (1st round, 2012) and Yordano Ventura as well as left-hander John Lamb, the Royals possess some upside on the mound that is close to the majors. Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte provide some depth but are on a more deliberate path to the big leagues.

System weaknesses

KC top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Kyle Zimmer	RHP
2. Bubba Starling	CF
3. Yordano Ventura	RHP
4. Jorge Bonifacio	OF
5. Aldaberto Mondesi	SS
6. John Lamb	LHP
7. Jason Adam	RHP
8. Orlando Calixte	SS
9. Cheslor Cuthbert	3B
10. Miguel Almonte	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Kyle Zimmer, RHP	5
2011 Bubba Starling, OF	5
2010 Christian Colon, 2B	4

The Royals traded a handful of their top prospects over the winter, including outfielder Wil Myers, and now lack impact bats in the upper minors. It doesn't help that third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert struggled in 2012 and that Bubba Starling has not progressed as quickly as the club had hoped. There is high-ceiling talent in outfielder Jorge Bonifacio and shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, but they're years away from making big league contributions.

Draft strategy

Kansas City has alternated between prep and college talents over the past five drafts, selecting three position players and three pitchers in the first round over that span. In other words, they are one of the few clubs that has not shown a clear preference.

Notable picks at No. 8
1995: Todd Helton, 1B (61.7 WAR)
1988: Jim Abbott, LHP (19.9 WAR)

Possible fits

Sean Manaea | LHP, Indiana State: Manaea is the need for the Royals, who lack left-handed pitching. Nevada's Braden Shipley could be in play here, too, as could Jacksonville's Chris Anderson, especially with an under-slot deal.

Austin Meadows | CF, Grayson (Ga.) HS: Meadows or Clint Frazier could be the club's top choice after college pitching. If the Royals go the college bat route, Hunter Renfroe may be one on the board.

---

Minnesota Twins
Pick: 4
Bonus pool: $8.2644M

System strength

The Twins, thanks to both international free agency and the draft, have one of the game's best farm systems. Third baseman Miguel Sano, center fielder Byron Buxton and second baseman Eddie Rosario provide upside at the plate and superstar potential. The club is using two rookie outfielders in the majors this season in Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia -- both of whom may become worthy regulars between now and 2014 -- and Max Kepler adds more corner outfield depth.

System weaknesses

While the Twins have developed a reputation for valuing command over stuff, they have made an effort to change that in past years, trading for hard-throwing right-handers Alex Meyer and Trevor May over the winter and drafting prep righty Jose Berrios at No. 32 overall a year ago. Catcher is generally a weakness in most systems, as is shortstop, and both qualify for the Twins as an area that can be stronger in a perfect world.

MIN top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Miguel Sano	3B
2. Byron Buxton	CF
3. Kyle Gibson	RHP
4. Aaron Hicks	CF
5. Oswaldo Arcia	OF
6. Alex Meyer	RHP
7. Eddie Rosario	2B
8. Jose Berrios	RHP
9. Max Kepler	OF
10. Trevor May	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Byron Buxton, CF	2
2011 Levi Michael, SS	30
2010 Alex Wimmers, RHP	21

Draft strategy

The Twins have been all over the board in recent years, taking collegians Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers and Levi Michael in the first round over the past four drafts. Along the way, however, they have mixed in upside high school picks, including Buxton at No. 2 overall a year ago. This draft has three players (Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and Kris Bryant) who are considered a cut above the rest, so the Twins could go in any number of directions at No. 4

Notable picks at No. 4
2005: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (30.2 WAR)
2011: Barry Larkin, SS (70.2 WAR)
1973: Dave Winfield, RF (64.0 WAR)

Possible fits

Kohl Stewart | RHP, St. Pius X HS (Houston) Stewart would fill the biggest need in the organization -- high-upside talent on the mound -- and he brings big-time athleticism to the table suggesting, having earned a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M. The signing bonus he could at No. 4 would probably prevent him from setting foot on the college gridiron.

Reese McGuire | C, Kentwood (Wash.) HS: The club does lack catching options in the system to eventually take over for Joe Mauer, and McGuire does have some similarities to Mauer in that he's athletic for the position, has a plus-plus arm and bats left-handed. There's been a lingering rumor all spring that the Twins could cut a pre-draft deal with McGuire.

Austin Meadows | CF, Grayson (Ga.) HS: You can never have too much up-the-middle talent, and the Twins could be emboldened by the early pro success of Buxton to go after the most gifted prep outfielder in this year's class, who also happens to be from Georgia.

---

Houston Astros
Pick: 1
Bonus pool: $11.6988M

System strength

A system that was decimated by bad trades and poor drafts has made a dramatic turnaround, thanks in large part to the terrific work of GM Jeff Luhnow and scouting director Mike Elias.

The Astros placed five prospects in Keith Law's top 100 to begin the year, ranking the Astros fourth in all of baseball. Houston is particularly strong in the infield, led by 2012 No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa (No. 24 on Law's top 100) , first baseman Jonathan Singleton (No. 32) and second baseman Delino Deshields Jr. (No. 83). The outfield has some solid prospects as well, including George Springer (No. 43) and Domingo Santana.

System weaknesses

The Astros have some quality arms, but the overall quantity couldn't be described as elite. No left-handed pitcher made Law's top 10 (see table), and Houston's best pitching prospect -- right-hander Jarred Cosart -- could end up as a reliever. Houston also doesn't have a future catcher in the system, with Max Stassi being the only backstop in the system who has a chance to be an everyday player.

HOU top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Carlos Correa	SS
2. Johnathan Singleton	1B
3. George Springer	OF
4. Delino DeShields Jr.	CF
5. Jarred Cosart	RHP
6. Mike Foltyniewicz	RHP
7. Robbie Grossman	LF
8. Lance McCullers Jr.	RHP
9. Jonathan Villar	SS
10. Domingo Santana	OF

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Carlos Correa, SS	1
2011 George Springer, OF	11
2010 Delino DeShields Jr., 2B	8

Draft strategy

No team used the new draft bonus rules to its advantage better than the Astros last year, signing Correa for well less than MLB's bonus recommendation and using the extra money to go well over slot on picks such as Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz. While there were some questionable value picks in the latter half of the first 10 rounds, Houston clearly took a best-player-available approach with most of its selections, with no clear bias toward the prep or college ranks.

Notable No. 1 Picks 
2001: Joe Mauer, C (40.8 WAR)
1993: Alex Rodriguez, 1993 (115.5 WAR)
1990: Chipper Jones, 3B (85.1 WAR)

Possible fits

Mark Appel | RHP, Stanford: Appel might be the best player on the board, but he's not a lock to be the first pick in the draft. If the Astros do take him, though, they have a potential ace who could compete for a rotation spot as soon as next year.

Jonathan Gray | RHP, Oklahoma: This is the other "realistic" option for Houston, with Gray offering more upside but less track record than Appel, and possibly a lower cost.

Kris Bryant | 3B, San Diego: If Houston does decide to go with a bat, this would be the most likely pick, with apologies to Colin Moran and Clint Frazier.

---

Los Angeles Angels
Pick: 59
Bonus pool: $2.9982M

System strength

If there's a strength in the Angels' system, it's the depth in the infield. Third baseman Kaleb Cowart (No. 23 on Keith Law's top 100) looks to be an above-average regular who will provide plus defense and good power at the hot corner. The Angels also have some interesting prospects up the middle, including second basemen Taylor Lindsey and Alex Yarbrough and shortstop Jose Rondon.

System weaknesses

LAA top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Kaleb Cowart	3B
2. Taylor Lindsey	SS
3. C.J. Cron	1B
4. Nick Maronde	LHP
5. Alex Yarbough	2B
6. Randal Grichuk	OF
7. Kole Calhoun	OF
8. Michael Clevinger	RHP
9. Cam Bedrosian	RHP
10. Jose Rondon	SS

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 R.J. Alvarez, RHP	114
2011 C.J. Cron, 1B	17
2010 Kaleb Coward, 3B	18

The Angels' system has been ravaged by trades, a lack of high draft choices and very little success in the international market. There's a severe lack of starting pitching at any level, and their best pitching prospect-- left-hander Nick Maronde -- is likely a reliever at the next level. There's nothing in the system in terms of an impact bat, and their best outfield prospects (Kole Calhoun, Randal Grichuk) are likely reserves on a big league club. It is easy to see why Law ranked the Angels' system dead last in all of Major League Baseball this winter.

Draft strategy

As a result of picks sacrificed for free-agent signings, general manager Jerry Dipoto and scouting director Ric Wilson have had only one top-100 pick in their time with the Angels (2011, C.J. Cron), but in their time together, we've seen Los Angeles go the college route early and often. Of the Angels' eight picks in the first 10 rounds last year, only one was spent on a prep player. With the Halos having the lowest bonus pool of any team in the American League, you can likely expect that trend to continue.

Notable No. 59 Picks
1986: Dean Palmer, 3B (13.3 WAR)

Possible fits

Andrew Knapp | C, California: There's no catching depth in the Angels' system, and Knapp has some offensive upside as a switch-hitting backstop with a strong arm behind the plate.

Tom Windle | LHP, Minnesota: Windle doesn't have the stuff of a front line starter, but his feel for pitching and command should allow him to be a midrotation starter, and he would be solid value in the second round.

Mike O'Neill | OF, Michigan: O'Neill probably can't stick in center field, but the hit tool might be good enough to keep him in the corner outfield, and he's one of the more instinctive players in this year's class.

---

Oakland Athletics
Pick: 24
Bonus pool: $6.0368M

System strength

The one strength appears to be the club's depth around the infield with top prospect Addison Russell, corner bat Miles Head, third baseman Daniel Robertson and converted second baseman Grant Green all ranking among the A's top 10. They also have long-term prospects in first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Renato Nunez.

System weaknesses

OAK top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Addison Russell	SS
2. Sonny Gray	RHP
3. Michael Choice	OF
4. Dan Straily	RHP
5. Daniel Robertson	SS/3B
6. Miles Head	3B/1B
7. Nolan Sanburn	RHP
8. Grant Green	2B
9. Matt Olson	1B
10. Renato Nunez	3B

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Addison Russell, SS	11
2011 Sonny Gray, RHP	18
2010 Michael Choice, OF	10

With most of the organization's pitching having graduated to the bigs or now on the brink of doing so, pitching is the weakness, along with catching depth and a long-term option in center field.

Draft strategy

Oakland has gone for a high school player three times in the first round over the past two drafts after the A's went college with their previous 24 -- yes, 24 -- first- rounders, dating back to Jeremy Bondermanin 2001, their last prep draft selection in the first round. The A's have two extra picks at 71 and 106.

Notable No. 24 Picks 
2003: Chad Billingsley (17.2 WAR)
1990: Rondell White, OF (28.1 WAR)

Possible fits

Alex Gonzalez | RHP, Oral Roberts: The A's could tab any of a number of college pitchers here, including Gonzalez, whose four-pitch arsenal and command suggest he could move quickly, which is perhaps the Athletics' most coveted attribute in a pitching prospect. LSU's Ryan Eades and Jacksonville's Chris Anderson could also fit.

Hunter Harvey | RHP, Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.): Harvey might represent the best prep arm on the board at No. 24, and the A's could go the upside route rather than the quick-study college pitcher.

.

Rob Kaminsky | LHP, St. Joseph's High School (Montvale, N.J.): Kaminsky or Bay Area lefty Matt Krook would give the A's their best left-handed pitching prospect since Brett Anderson broke through.

---

Seattle Mariners
Pick: 12
Bonus pool: $6.1327M

System strength

The Mariners boast a strong collection of young pitching in the upper minors, the big leagues and Class A ball. After the big names -- Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton -- lefty Tyler Pike, a 2012 draft pick, and international signing Victor Sanchez provide long-term depth. Seattle also possesses solid middle infield depth in Nick Franklin and Brad Miller. With Mike Zunino (No. 3 overall, 2012) John Hicks and Tyler Marlette, the catcher position is more of a strength than a weakness.

System weaknesses

SEA top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Taijuan Walker	RHP
2. Mike Zunino, C	RHP
3. Danny Hultzen	LHP
4. Nick Franklin	SS/2B
5. Brandon Maurer	RHP
6. James Paxton	LHP
7. Victor Sanchez	RHP
8. Brad Miller	SS
9. Tyler Pike, LHP	1B
10. Carter Capps	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Mike Zunino, C	3
2011 Danny Hultzen, LHP	2
2010 Taijuan Walker, RHP	43

The club lacks offensive firepower at each level of the farm system, particularly at the corners in both the infield and outfield. If Miller and Franklin each end up moving off shortstop, there's a huge hole there, too, with glove-only prospect Chris Taylor the next-best option.

Draft strategy

The Mariners need offense in their system, but they also needed it in 2011 and still selected Hultzen at No. 2 overall, a sign they'll take the top player left on their board when it's their turn to choose. It's unlikely, however, that a high-risk player, almost no matter the ceiling, will be that player at No. 12. The M's typically aren't shy about loading up on more pitching if that's where the value happens to be.

Notable No. 12 Picks
2004: Jered Weaver, RHP (30.1 WAR)
1994: Nomar Garciaparra, SS (44.2 WAR)
1978: Kirk Gibson, OF (38.2 WAR)

Possible fits

Austin Wilson | RF, Stanford: Wilson and New Mexico's DJ Peterson outrank Fresno State's Aaron Judge as the top college bat likely to be on the board at No. 12, although not even they are guaranteed. The M's need offense but aren't likely to reach past Wilson or Peterson for a college bat.

J.P. Crawford | SS, Lakewood (Calif.) HS: Crawford would give the club a third shortstop prospect, and perhaps the one most likely to stick at the position long term.

---

Texas Rangers
Pick: 23, 30
Bonus pool: $6.5538M

System strength

Any talk of the Rangers' farm system has to start with shortstop Jurickson Profar, Keith Law's No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. With Profar and Mike Olt (No. 73), Texas has arguably the best potential left side in all of baseball, or right side if the Rangers chose to go that route. The Rangers have some depth on the mound, with Cody Buckel (90) and Martin Perez (93) representing the best of an above-average group.

System weaknesses

TEX top 10 prospects

As ranked by Keith Law this preseason. For complete version, click here.

PLAYER	POS
1. Jurickson Profar	SS
2. Mike Olt	3B
3. Cody Buckel	RHP
4. Martin Perez	LHP
5. Lewis Brinson	OF
6. Nomar Mazara	OF
7. Joey Gallo	3B
8. Jorge Alfaro, C	C
9. Luis Sardinas	SS
10. Luke Jackson	RHP

Recent top picks

PLAYER	POS
2012 Lewis Brinson, OF	29
2011 Kevin Matthews, LHP	33
2010 Jake Skole, OF	15

Outside of Olt and Profar, there's very little that could contribute for Texas offensively, particularly in the outfield. The Rangers drafted a plethora of interesting offensive prospects last year such as Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson and Nick Williams, but expecting any of them to be in Arlington before 2015 is a real stretch.

Draft strategy

The Rangers value upside in the early rounds as much as any club in baseball, taking high school players with their first five picks in last year's draft. In fact, the last time Texas took a college player with its first pick was Justin Smoak with the 12th pick in 2005. The Rangers also have shown a willingness to take risks with prep pitchers, taking a high school hurler on Day 1 in each of the past three drafts.

Notable No. 23 Picks
1989: Mo Vaughn, 1B (27.1 WAR)

Possible fits

Billy McKinney | OF, Plano (Texas) West HS: McKinney doesn't offer the upside the Rangers usually covet, but a homegrown talent with his ability could be appealing at pick 23 or 30.

Jacob Brentz | LHP, South HS (Ballwin, Mo.): Texas has taken a prep southpaw in the first round in three of the past four years, and Brentz is one of the best in this year's class, with a heater that has been clocked in the high 90s this spring.

Travis Demeritte | SS, Winder-Barrow (Ga.) HS: Demeritte would definitely keep with the Rangers' trend of toolsy but extremely raw high school bats that they selected time and time again last year.

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/5/21/4349774/organizational-droughts-second-base

Organizational droughts: second base

By Grant Brisbee on May 21 2013

When was the last time your team developed a star second baseman? Well, we've made lists to ... dammit, Darwin Barney, go home.

 

Here's the third installment of organizational droughts, in which we look for the last homegrown star developed by each team at every position. The first part is here, where we learned that the Cardinals haven't developed a five-win pitcher since John Denny in the '70s, and the second part is here, where we learn that the Padres (and three other recent expansion teams) have never developed a four-win first baseman. Today, we turn our attention to second baseman.

There's a special wrinkle to this installment, though. I will actually double-check my work to make sure these players are homegrown! No additional charge. It's a weird strategy, but I'll make it work.

Here, then, are the last second basemen developed by each team to have a four-win season before they played for a different team. All stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

Still with the team

Brian Roberts - Orioles (5.2, 2008)
Chase Utley - Phillies (5.8, 2010)
Howie Kendrick - Angels (4.5, 2011)
Ian Kinsler - Rangers (7.0, 2011)
Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox (4.9, 2012)
Jason Kipnis - Indians (4.0, 2012)
Darwin Barney - Cubs (4.8, 2012)
Robinson Cano - Yankes (8.5, 2012)

I was waiting for this one. Oh, Darwin Barney. Survival of the fieldiest. Thorn in the side of people who trumpet Wins Above Replacement, and bane of the people still skeptical of it, too. Barney's on-base percentage was .299, yet he supposedly had a season that was better than anything Frank White ever did? Harrumph, harrumph. Two points:

a. Think of defense like batting average. Darin Erstad hit .355 in 2000, but was he really a .355 hitter? No, but presented 676 chances in 2000, he converted 240 of them into hits. He never did it again. Never came close. That doesn't mean his .355 average is illegitimate. It still happened. Now replace "at-bats" with "tough chances in the field" and "hits" with "plays made." It might not mean that Barney is on a Hall of Fame path. It just might mean that in 2012, Barney had a Darin Erstad-like year, but in the field.

b. I'm pretty freaking skeptical, too.

If not Barney, you have to go back to Billy Herman in 1935, Cubs fans, which is pretty amazing. Though pilfering Ryne Sandberg from the Phillies probably takes some of that sting out.

Howie Kendrick will never live up to his minor-league numbers (where he was a career .360 hitter), but he's been remarkably consistent, and he's signed to a team-friendly deal that ends right around the age when most second basemen expire. The biggest surprise for me with the Angels is that the oft-traveled Sandy Alomar (Sr.) had the best non-Grich season for a second baseman overall (though he wasn't homegrown).

Recent past

Aaron Hill - Blue Jays (5.8, 2009)
Martin Prado - Braves (5.0, 2010)

Prado played over half his games at second in 2010, so even if he's not a true second baseman, he qualifies. Next up for the Braves was Marcus Giles, who was an All-Star picking up down-ballot MVP votes until he was out of baseball by 30. That's kind of the running theme of this list. But I'm sure yourteam's young second baseman will stay good forever and ever.

Most confusing career? For my money, Aaron Hill is the current winner. He was a first-round pick who was mediocre before he was great before he was awful before he was great before he was awful before he was great again. Makes sense.

Not-so-recent past

Edgardo Alfonzo - Mets (6.4, 2000)
Ray Durham - White Sox (4.3, 2001)
Jose Vidro - Expos/Nationals (5.3, 2002)
Bret Boone - Mariners (5.9, 2003)
Luis Castillo - Marlins (4.4, 2003)

Bret Boone probably doesn't count, as he was traded away before his first good season for Bobby Ayala and Dan Wilson. He came back to star for the Mariners, but if you want to call foul here's the runner-up.

After the 2002 season, the Giants signed both Alfonzo and Durham to five-year deals. Both of them made sense at the time, and the Durham one worked out to some extent. But they both gave their best years to the teams that developed them.

Distant past

Rennie Stennett - Pirates (4.9, 1975)
Jim Gantner - Brewers (4.3, 1983)
Frank White - Royals (4.1, 1984)
Tom Herr - Cardinals (5.6, 1985)
Steve Sax - Dodgers (5.0, 1986)
Roberto Alomar - Padres (4.4, 1989)
Mike Bordick - Athletics (4.3, 1992)
Robby Thompson - Giants (6.3, 1993)
Lou Whitaker - Tigers (4.1, 1993)
Chuck Knoblauch - Twins (6.7, 1997)
Pokey Reese - Reds (4.0, 1999)
Craig Biggio - Astros (5.0, 1999)

Stennett was just 25 when he had his superlative '75 season, but he's also remembered for what he didn't do with the Giants. Peter Gammons explains:

On Dec. 5. the day baseball's 1988 winter meetings officially opened at Atlanta's Marriott Marquis Hotel, Rennie Stennett was milling around the lobby looking for a job—as a player. Remember Stennett? In December '79 the San Francisco Giants signed him to a five-year, $3 million contract, even though he was hampered by leg injuries and had hit no homers and had only 24 RBIs for the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous season.

The five-year deal was huge back then. And it didn't make sense at the time, either.

Apropos of nothing, this is my favorite tidbit from that Gammons column, written in '88:

The Indians landed reliever Jesse Orosco, who's widely perceived to be over the hill, with a two-year, $1.675 million deal, after everyone else was passing on him.

Orosco pitched 15 more seasons.

After Steve Sax was convicted of murder, the Dodgers had an awful time finding a second baseman of note, which almost explains the Delino DeShields/Pedro Martinez trade. Almost. But the Giants have had a similarly tough time with their second-base prospects, and it was Thompson's '93 season that made them choose the 31-year-old second baseman over Will Clark when both were free agents. They chose …

… poorly.

Bordick is another example of a player who would have been treated far kinder in the fog of WAR. He was consistently an excellent fielder, but he was a pretty regular punching back for OBP fetishists at the turn of the millennium. Didn't get on base enough. It's funny that one of Bill James's most famous quotes is that bad teams look at what players can't do instead of what they can, yet in Bordick's prime a lot of analysts were doing the same thing with good-glove/weak-bat players. Also of note: Bordick was not drafted.

Pokey Reese was the Darwin Barney of his time, but no one ever thought to argue on his behalf. It's a shame the Reds stubbornly refused to call up Gookie Dawkins in 2001 so they could have an infield with Gookie at short, Pokey at second, and Corky behind the plate.

Rickie Weeks came close for the Brewers (as did Ronnie Belliard!), and a young Paul Molitor would have taken the crown if Gantner hadn't shown up, but it wasn't necessary. Gantner played 17 years for the Brewers, racking up just over 22 wins. That's more than Dan Uggla, Freddy Sanchez, and Carlos Baerga, in case you were wondering.

Nope

Rays
Diamondbacks
Rockies

It's the recent expansion teams at the bottom again, which isn't surprising or fun. The only homegrown second baseman to play enough to be worth just a single win was Neifi Perez in 1997, who was worth one win. He hit .291/.333/.444, and his OPS+ was .86. Those turn-of-the-millennium adjusted Coors stats never get old.

Ben Zobrist came over from Houston in a deal for Aubrey Huff (!), so he doesn't count. The only Ray who comes close was Akinori Iwamura, who was pretty danged good until he fell down a well, which is the only explanation for a player disappearing like that. (He's still playing, actually.)

I'm looking to the judges, and they're shaking their heads "no," so I can't include Junior Spivey's 2001 season, in which he was good for 3.9 wins. We aren't even pretending that WAR is hyper-accurate, so what's a tenth of a win among friends? Alas, there has to be a cutoff point somewhere, and four makes more sense than 3.9. Also, Spivey fell down the same well as Iwamura. Imagine Rickie Weeks being out of baseball by 2015. That's what it was like to watch Spivey come and go.

The Cubs should be the loser in this one, dang it. They should have a homegrown player from the '30s as their rep. It would have been amazing.

Oh, Darwin Barney. You've ruined everything.

 

 

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/5/20/4348528/tony-cingrani-reds-demotion

 

Lamenting the demotion of Tony Cingrani

 

By Grant Brisbee on May 20 2013

How can the Reds demote one of their better prospects when he was doing so well? Turns out it wasn't so hard ...

There's no way to talk about what the Reds are doing without falling back on two old-timey truisms.

You can never have enough pitching. It's a good problem to have.

The Reds have too much starting pitching. It's a good problem to have! That problem is that they have too much starting pitching, which is a good problem to have! Say, did you hear the one about the Reds having too much …

If you missed it, the Reds welcomed Johnny Cueto back from the disabled list, which meant the Reds had to make room. To do that, they demoted Tony Cingrani, who had done this:

Year	Age	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	BB/9	SO/9
2013	23	2	0	3.27	6	33.0	7	9	41	125	2.5	11.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

 

That's about what you'd expect from a pitcher with a career 1.62 ERA in the minors. In three Triple-A starts this season, Cingrani allowed three hits and two walks in 14 innings. He struck out 26. The left-hander might be a prospect crush, but I still don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that he would be one of the five best starters on any team. Pick a rotation. Cingrani would be one of the best pitchers in it.

The Reds, though, will start five pitchers not named Tony Cingrani, even though they have the real thing. The reason is simple:

"We talked to him," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "He did a great job for the limited experience that he had. It was a great learning experience, but he also helped us at the same time. I talked to him and so did (pitching coach Bryan Price). He knows he needs a secondary pitch."

It's not something they made up. Cingrani threw a fastball 83 percent of the time, a slider 10 percent of the time, and a change-up seven percent of the time. If you separate out two-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and four-seamers (as PITCHf/x does), the highest fastball percentage in 2012 belonged to Phil Hughes, at 66 percent. Second place was Clayton Kershaw at 63 percent, so a fastball-heavy approach can be extraordinarily effective.

But throwing four-seamers 83 percent of the time? Pretty unprecedented.

Cingrani's slider might be a work in progress, but it's still a pretty good pitch. It got a higher percentage of swinging strikes than the fastball, for example. Like this:

Of course, that's a representative slider of Cingrani's in a couple different ways. Sure it has a lot of break, but it's also not close to the strike zone. He's thrown a slider 61 times in 2013, and just under a third of those sliders were in the strike zone. Which is kind of the point with sliders, at least with a two-strike count. Still, that's a really, really low percentage. It explains why hitters swung at only 26 percent of them. His slider needs work. His change-up is raw, too.

When the Reds say Cingrani needs to work on his secondary pitches, they're being completely accurate and honest.

Yet Cingrani is still one of the five-best starting pitchers in the Reds' organization. Both things can be true.

What the crazy depth allows the Reds to do is wait for the sixth-best starter to reveal himself. While Cingrani is working on his slider and change (good), the Reds can figure out who should make way without making an impulsive decision (also good). Mike Leake might go back to being boringly effective, but nothing that should keep Cingrani in the minors. We're still just a season-and-a-half away from Bronson Arroyo giving up 46 home runs, and it's not like the 36-year-old's stuff is getting any better. One of the two can falter, and the Reds can be reactive instead of proactive -- a good thing in this case.

Or all five starters could keep on keepin' on, while Cingrani improves and turns into mecha-Cingrani against minor-league hitters who don't deserve to look that bad. As much as I want to rail against the Cingrani demotion and call it a crime against the fastball arts, it's almost certainly the only thing the Reds can do. In the worst-best-case scenario, Cingrani becomes a super-reliever in the playoffs, eating two or three quality innings whenever the Reds need him to. You can never have enough pitching. It's a good problem to have.

I'll miss Cingrani, though. And I'm kind of rooting for Arroyo to give up 46 homers again, to be honest. Not because I dislike Arroyo, but because baseball is duller without Tony Cingrani in the majors.

(And, okay, maybe because I dislike Arroyo just a little.)

 

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9287703/delmon-young-falls-no-1-overall-first-round-2003-redraft-mlb

 

 

Updated: May 21, 4:53 PM ET
Redrafting the 2003 MLB draft

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By Keith Law
ESPN Insider

	Matt Kemp would go a lot higher in the draft if we could do it all over.

Last year I went back 10 years and redrafted the 2002 MLB Rule 4 draft, one made famous by the book "Moneyball" and by the Pirates' insistence on taking a player they projected as a No. 3 starter with the top pick. In the same vein, I've gone back to 2003 this year and redrafted the group, again finding that the top player wasn't a first-rounder at the time, while again finding that the player taken first overall hasn't turned out to be among the 30 best prospects in the crop.

This redraft is based on two major criteria: the players' careers to date, and my projections of any value they still have to offer (although the list does include two players whose careers are likely over). I did not account for the player's signability at the time, nor did I consider a team's preference for high school or college players, pitchers versus position players, etc. -- this analysis is based purely on talent.

Please note that we included only players who were drafted in 2003 and subsequently signed with the club that selected them. Players like Tim Lincecum or Max Scherzer, for example, who were drafted out of high school but decided to attend college, were not considered. The Cubs took Lincecum in the 48th round and the Cardinals took Scherzer in the 23rd. The Rays took four players who were drafted later by other teams and became better than replacement-level big leaguers: Kris Medlen (37th round), Wade LeBlanc (36th round),Jared Hughes (16th round) and Adam Ottavino (30th round).

Also of note is that certain teams did not have a first-round pick in 2003 because they lost it by virtue of signing a Type A free agent. Cleveland, Arizona and Kansas City, on the other hand, each had two first-rounders; Cleveland also had pick No. 31 in the sandwich round, but none of the three players the team selected with those top picks panned out.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Kemp | CF, Midwest City (Okla.) HS
Kemp isn't the WAR leader in this draft class, but has youth on his side and explosive potential that no one in this class can match, as long as he can return himself to the form and health that made him the NL's (lower-case) most valuable player in 2011. With roughly 20 WAR to date in both common systems, Kemp is comfortably in the top six already, but is the only player I see from this draft who still has the potential to post a 7-WAR season in the remainder of his career.

Kemp's actual draft spot: No. 181 (sixth round, Dodgers)
Tampa Bays '03 pick: Delmon Young, OF, Adolfo Camarillo HS (Camarillo, Calif.)

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2. Milwaukee Brewers

Ian Kinsler | 2B, Missouri
Kinsler's junior year at Missouri was marred by injuries, so he wasn't even the first or second player taken from his team, but he has turned out to be the most productive players from that draft through the first 10 years. Never a great defender, Kinsler turned himself into a passable one for a few years before age started to catch up with him, and the seemingly inevitable move to first or left field will further hurt his future value. It's a stretch to see any other college player from this draft matching his career production.

Kinsler's actual draft spot: No. 496 (17th round, Rangers)
Milwaukee's '03 pick: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern

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3. Detroit Tigers

Aaron Hill | 2B, LSU
Full disclosure: I worked for the Blue Jays at the time and was in the draft room that year, part of the process that led to this selection (but by no means was the decision-maker or close to it). Our scouting coordinator at the time, Jon Lalonde, mentioned to me before the college season started that year that Hill was his personal favorite for our pick in June, a prescient call not just on the selection but on Hill's career, as he's turned himself into a very good defender at second who's been very productive around injuries.

Hill's actual draft spot: No. 13 (first round, Blue Jays)
Detroit's '03 pick: Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest

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4. San Diego Padres

Nick Markakis | OF, Young Harris College
Many teams had Markakis rated more highly as a pitcher because of the perceived value of a lefty with mid-90s velocity and some feel for his breaking stuff, but the Orioles saw him as a hitter all the way and for a while it looked like a tremendous call. Markakis' power has just never developed as expected, and while he's somewhat patient it's not enough to offset the lack of extra-base hits. I thought two years ago that perhaps he just needed a change of scenery, but the regime changed in Baltimore and if anything he's been a little worse. That said, relative to the company he's provided some value.

Markakis' actual draft spot: No. 7 (first round, Orioles)
San Diego's '03 pick: Tim Stauffer, RHP, Richmond

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5. Kansas City Royals

Michael Bourn | CF, Houston
The Phillies were more involved in the market for college players in the early 2000s, finding a gem in Bourn because his plus-plus speed eventually translated into plus-plus defense in center, just as the industry has started to improve its understanding of the value of a good glove. I've expressed concerns before about Bourn aging poorly because so much of his value is tied up in his legs, but he's already delivered about 20 wins above replacement and could sneak up close to 30 if his body ages well.

Bourn's actual draft spot: No. 115 (fourth round, Phillies)
Kansas City's '03 pick: Chris Lubanski, OF, Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic HS (Norristown, Pa.)

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6. Chicago Cubs

Adam Jones | OF, Morse HS (San Diego)
Jones was drafted as a shortstop and also was scouted on the mound, but finally found a home in center field before the Mariners traded him to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard fiasco. Jones' hot start last year didn't last, but he does seem to have reached his power peak and could produce more 4-5 WAR seasons going forward than anyone other than Kemp in this class. It's also worth considering whether Jones' pedestrian defensive numbers would look better had he been moved to right field a few years back.

Jones' actual draft spot: No. 37 (supplemental first round, Mariners)
Chicago's '03 pick: Ryan Harvey, OF, Dunedin (Fla.) HS

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7. Baltimore Orioles

Andre Ethier | RF, Arizona State
The fact that we are already down to Ethier, who has spent his best years as just an average regular and now should be a platoon player, tells you a lot about this draft class -- or just about any draft class. Only the most exceptional drafts produce more than five or six stars, and a truly "good" draft is one that produces lots of regulars, because stars are so rare. This is also a way around saying much about Ethier, who is a pretty boring player and now can't hit lefties or do much in right field.

Ethier's actual draft spot: No. 62 (second round, A's)
Baltimore's '03 pick: Markakis

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8. Pittsburgh Pirates

Chad Billingsley | RHP, Defiance (Ohio) HS
Billingsley is on the shelf for the year, but given the 80-85 percent success rate of Tommy John surgery, it's reasonable to think he might have a few good seasons left in him, maybe more.

He looked like he was on the verge of breaking into MLB's top 10 pitchers for about four years, but there were even signs then that his command was slipping, leading to a significant drop in his strikeout rate before he went down with a torn elbow ligament. Other than Kemp, Billingsley has the most remaining upside of the players on this list.

Billingsley's actual draft spot: No. 24 (first round, Dodgers)
Pittsburgh's '03 pick: Paul Maholm, LHP, Mississippi State

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9. Texas Rangers

John Danks | LHP, 
Danks looked like a fifth starter until he was traded to Chicago, where pitching coach Don Cooper gave him a cutter (more like a slider, at least visually) and turned him into a good No. 2 starter for four years before the wheels came off in 2012. Danks may be done as an effective big league starter, but the value he provided in those four years was substantial, and most teams would kill to get that from their first-round selection.

Danks' actual draft spot: No. 9 (first round, Rangers)
Texas' '03 pick: Danks, Round Rock (Texas) HS

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10. Colorado Rockies

Matt Harrison | LHP, South Granville HS (Creedmoor, N.C.)
Harrison has yet to reach 10 WAR per FanGraphs or Baseball Reference, but also seems to have just started his peak period over the past two years, becoming a control/ground-ball guy who misses just enough bats to be good. A back injury has him out until midseason but, assuming that's not a career-altering condition, I think we'll see several more seasons like 2011-12 from him in the future.

Harrison's actual draft spot: No. 97 (third round, Braves)
Colorado's '03 pick: Ian Stewart, 3B, La Quinta HS (Westminster, Calif.)

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11. Cleveland Indians

Jonathan Papelbon | RHP, Mississippi State
Papelbon is nearing the end of his run as a top-tier closer -- although you can bet the "proven closer" tag will stick to him for a while beyond that -- which provided a remarkable seven years of good value to the Red Sox and Phillies. I don't like spending high picks on closers -- though there was a belief in some quarters that Papelbon could start -- because their value is volatile and their peaks are often very short, but for a fourth-round selection this was enormous value for Boston.

Papelbon's actual draft spot: No. 114 (fourth round, Red Sox)
Cleveland's '03 pick: Michael Aubrey, 1B, Tulane

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12. New York Mets

Rickie Weeks | 2B, Southern
Weeks played at Southern, which is in the worst Division I conference for baseball, and he did what a prospect of his caliber should do in that situation, hitting over .500 with stats beyond reproach. And he has the tools to be a superstar in the majors, including crazy bat speed and the ability to run.

But Weeks has never quite figured out the major league breaking ball, so while he can murder a fastball, he sees a lot of sliders and curveballs and his strikeout rate is now on pace for a career high. I am being stubborn when I say that I believe we haven't seen the last of the good version of Rickie Weeks, although he'll probably have those bounce-back years in Tampa Bay or Oakland.

Weeks' actual draft spot: No. 2 (first round, Brewers)
New York's '03 pick: Lastings Milledge, OF, Lakewood Ranch HS (Bradenton, Fla.)

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13. Toronto Blue Jays

Scott Baker | RHP, Oklahoma State
The prototypical Twins pitching draft pick from the 2000s, Baker threw strikes with average stuff. I saw him in Double-A and saw a pretty flat fastball and no third pitch, but he eventually developed a slider and churned out several solid midrotation starter seasons before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2012 season and, so far, his 2013 season as well. I don't think he can be close to that effective if the surgery cost him a few miles an hour, so there's at least some possibility he comes back as a fifth starter or worse. Even so it's a great return on a second-round pick.

Baker's actual draft spot: No. 58 (second round, Twins)
Toronto's '03 pick: Aaron Hill

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14. Cincinnati Reds

Paul Maholm | LHP, Mississippi State
I thought at the time that Maholm was a bit of a reach at No. 8, drafted that high in large part because he was (still is, in fact) left-handed. He's never been a star and has had just a few seasons where you might argue he was above-average, but he's also been durable, racking up nearly 1,300 innings in his seven full seasons, never making fewer than 26 starts. He wasn't the eighth-best player in the draft class, but the Pirates did come closer to the mark than I thought at the time.

Maholm's actual draft spot: No. 8 (first round, Pirates)
Cincinnati's '03 pick: Ryan Wagner, RHP, Houston

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15. Chicago White Sox

Shaun Marcum | RHP, Missouri State
Marcum was the shortstop and closer for Southwest Missouri State (which has since dropped the geographical part of its moniker) in 2003 when the Bears made their first-ever appearance in the College World Series.

He was drafted by the Jays, and I know our scouts at the time, including area scout Ty Nichols (now with the Cubs), believed strongly that Marcum could start despite his short stature, because he threw a ton of strikes and was very, very competitive. I also remember a draft room debate regarding Marcum, a reliever our guys believed could start, and Chris Ray of William and Mary, a college starter our guys believed had to go to the bullpen. Again, I can take minimal credit here, but our group made the right call even if, as I think now, Marcum is done as a major league starter. Maybe he can go back to short.

Marcum's actual draft spot: No. 80 (third round, Blue Jays)
Chicago's '03 pick: Brian Anderson, OF, Arizona

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16. Miami Marlins

Sean Marshall | LHP, VCU
Marshall was a very effective starter at Virginia Commonwealth and was on our radar in Toronto in part because his performance was so good, but his slight frame had our scouts concerned that he couldn't start in the long run. That point was well-founded, but Marshall turned out to be one of the game's best lefty relievers, a non-specialist who could face more than one or two batters in an outing, although the Cubs didn't always use him optimally. They sold high on him after his career year in 2011 when they traded him to the Reds. He likely won't return that kind of value again.

Marshall's actual draft spot: No. 163 (sixth round, Cubs)
Miami's '03 pick:Jeff Allison, RHP, Veterans Memorial HS (Peabody, Mass.)

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17. Boston Red Sox

Brendan Ryan | SS, Lewis & Clark State
A product of NAIA powerhouse Lewis & Clark State, which has prospered by taking players Division I schools can't or won't accept, Ryan has morphed into one of the game's best defensive shortstops and has never learned how to hit.

He had a fluky .290 average in 2009 but has hit .216/.284/.289 since then, canceling out a good chunk of the value he returned with his glove. Ryan is probably destined for backup duty for the remainder of his major league career.

Ryan's actual draft spot: No. 215 (seventh round, Cardinals)
Boston's '03 pick: David Murphy, OF, Baylor

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18. Cleveland Indians*

David Murphy | OF, Baylor
The 2003 draft marked the start of the analytical era in Boston ushered in by Theo Epstein, and it showed in the Red Sox's draft class. It was also noticed in our draft room in Toronto, because it was clear the Red Sox were targeting a similar group of players to ours, with just slight variations in preferences.

Murphy was a big performer at Baylor who seemed to have some upside in the power department, but has instead turned into a very, very good fourth outfielder, faking center, playing well in both corners, and hitting right-handers well enough to be the strong side of a platoon. His WAR totals might be better had Texas given him more time off against lefties, and I think he could play another five years as a bench/platoon guy who can handle left or right.

Murphy's actual draft spot: No. 17 (first round, Red Sox)
Cleveland's '03 pick: Brad Snyder, OF, Ball State
*This pick was compensation from the Phillies for signing Jim Thome.

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19. Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Quentin | OF, Stanford
Quentin needed Tommy John surgery at the time of the draft, so he slid to the back of the first round and went to Arizona, which had two first-round picks and was more willing to roll the dice on Quentin's elbow. He recovered well and quickly, after which the Diamondbacks quickly gave up on him, only to see him have a huge breakout season in 2008 that he's never repeated.

If you pick in the back half of the first round, are you happy with one star-caliber season and two or three seasons as a fringy regular? Probably not, but in reality, history says you should be. (Note: I wouldn't be happy either.)

Quentin's actual draft spot: No. 29 (first round, Diamondbacks)
Arizona's '03 pick: Conor Jackson, 1B, Cal
*This pick was compensation from the Mariners for signing Greg Colbrunn.

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20. Washington Nationals (then Montreal Expos)

A.J. Ellis | C, Austin Peay
Teams usually take lots of catchers in later rounds of the draft to fill out their short-season rosters -- you need someone to catch the hard-throwing prospects you drafted in earlier rounds or whom you've just brought over from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.

And once in a blue moon, one of those organizational catchers has enough plate discipline and good enough makeup to end up a big leaguer. In Ellis' case, he might even have a good five years left in him, which is why he's here over a few guys with higher WAR totals to date.

Ellis' actual draft spot: No. 541 (18th round, Dodgers)
Montreal's '03 pick: Chad Cordero, RHP, Cal-State Fullerton

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21. Minnesota Twins

Scott Feldman | RHP, College of San Mateo
Feldman has remade himself over the past few years into a cutter guy who rarely throws anything straight and avoids free passes, with a career-low walk rate last year and a strong ability to induce popups, which comes from throwing an effective cutter in on hitters' hands.

His basic peripherals last year said he was better than his 5-plus ERA indicated, but the high line-drive rate contradicts that somewhat, and I think his true talent level is somewhere in the 1.5-2 WAR range; at age 30, he's young enough to have several more of those years, kind of like a better version of Doug Davis.

Feldman's actual draft spot: No. 886 (30th round, Rangers)
Minnesota's '03 pick: Matt Moses, 3B, Mills E Godwin HS (Richmond, Va.)

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22. San Francisco Giants

Sean Rodriguez | SS, Braddock HS (Miami)
Rodriguez is a very good utility infielder, a plus defender at second who isn't awful at short and can handle most other positions, with a little speed and a little patience and not a whole lot of anything else. He has generated only a little over 7 WAR (per Baseball Reference) to date, but at 28 could spend the next five years as a utility infielder or even as someone's starting second baseman for parts of various seasons.

Rodriguez's actual draft spot: No. 90 (third round, Angels)
San Francisco's '03 pick: David Aardsma, RHP, Rice
*This pick was compensation from the Astros for signing Jeff Kent.

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23. Los Angeles Angels

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | C, Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) HS 
Saltalamacchia was probably better known for marrying one of his high school teachers than he was for his baseball abilities until he got to Boston before the 2011 season. Since then, he's shown himself to be a solid platoon backstop, hitting for power against right-handers, although he's as useful as a broken clock against lefties. As long as he can catch, he'll find work, and could generate more than 1 WAR per year well into his 30s.

Saltalamacchia's actual draft spot: No. 36 (supplemental first round, Braves)
Los Angeles' '03 pick: Brandon Wood, SS, Horizon HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.)

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24. Los Angeles Dodgers

Mike Aviles | SS, Concordia College
Aviles was one of five college seniors the Royals drafted and signed for $1,000 bonuses in rounds five through nine that year in an effort to save money. Aviles paid off in a big way with a huge rookie year in 2008 that accounts for more than half of the value he's produced as a big leaguer.

That year included some outlier defensive numbers that never passed the eye test, as he's stretched at shortstop and is much better suited to second. He's a decent if not ideal utility infielder because he can handle several positions but is allergic to drawing walks.

Aviles' actual draft spot: No. 192 (seventh round, Royals)
Los Angeles' '03 pick: Chad Billingsley

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25. Oakland Athletics

Daric Barton | 1B, Marina HS (Huntington Beach, Calif.)
Another hypothetical for you: If your late first-round pick's entire career comprised of just one year as a regular, but that year put him among the 10 or 15 most valuable players in your league, would you be happy with the pick? That's Barton, who had a .393 OBP with stellar defense in 2010, but has barely been above replacement level in the rest of his career.

Based on the typical WAR production you get from a first-rounder, it's a good return, but I have a hard time separating that from the emotional response that it just doesn't feel like it's enough for a first-round pick. That emotional response is why I like going through this exercise.

Barton's actual draft spot: No. 28 (first round, Cardinals)
Oakland's '03 pick: Brad Sullivan, RHP, Houston

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26. Oakland Athletics*

Ryan Roberts | INF, UT-Arlington
A senior who signed for a grand out of UT-Arlington, Roberts was an immediate favorite in Toronto's player development department because, in the words of his first pro trainer Tommy Craig, "He plays like his hair's on fire."

He's not disciplined but he can crush a mistake, and you can live with his defense at third or second over short stretches. That produced one great season in 2011, a solid one in 2009, and a bunch of fringy years. He's still going and might scrape out another decent season or two. Not bad for a guy who had just 31 major league plate appearances before his 28th birthday.

Roberts' actual draft spot: No. 530 (18th round, Blue Jays)
Oakland's '03 pick: Brian Snyder, 3B, Stetson
*This pick was compensation from the Giants for signing Ray Durham.

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27. New York Yankees

Tom Gorzelanny | LHP, Triton JC
Gorzelanny came out of a junior college and, if memory serves me correctly, had some minor arm trouble there that pushed him down our draft board a little in Toronto. He gave the Pirates about a year and a half of quality starting work before the disastrous 2008 campaign that had him worth a win less than a replacement level player, then was traded to the Cubs and gave them a good year in the rotation.

He's in the bullpen now and on the shelf with shoulder trouble; even when healthy his velocity has been reduced and he has to throw more and more sliders to get by.

Gorzelanny's actual draft spot: No. 45 (second round, Pirates)
New York's pick: Eric Duncan, 3B, Seton Hall Prep (West Orange, N.J.)

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28. St. Louis Cardinals

John Jaso | C, Southwestern College
Jaso put up big minor league numbers, but poor defense meant even the stat-crazed Rays were reluctant to give him a shot in the majors, finally doing so in 2010 with very positive results. He's not good at all behind the plate, but his ability to get on base plus value at first or at DH means a clever manager could work him in at catcher once a week or so to avoid having to carry a no-hit backup.

He's behind Saltalamacchia here despite superior WAR totals because Jaso is the kind of player who tends to age poorly, and I think Salty will eventually pass him in total career value.

Jaso's actual draft spot: No. 338 (12th round, Rays)
St. Louis' '03 pick: Daric Barton

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29. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Clippard | RHP, J.W. Mitchell HS (New Port Richey, Fla.)
The Yankees whiffed on their first eight picks in the 2003 draft, with none making the majors or even establishing any sort of trade value, including first-round bust Eric Duncan.

However, they did get four major leaguers from their draft class as a whole, including 19th-rounder Jeff Karstens and ninth-rounder Clippard, whose stuff was too marginal for the rotation but whose velocity picked up in a relief role, producing three solid seasons for the Nationals (who picked him up in a trade for Jonathan Albaladejo before 2008) in late-inning work. Relievers have short peaks and Clippard's probably won't last too much longer, but he's turned out to be one of the best relievers in the draft class, even exceeding the value of first-rounders Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and David Aardsma.

Clippard's actual draft spot: No. 274 (ninth round, Yankees)
Arizona's '03 pick: Carlos Quentin, Stanford

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30. Kansas City Royals*

Kyle Kendrick | RHP, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS
Kendrick has remade himself as a pitcher since late last summer, changes detailed by Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley, which is part of the SweetSpot network.

I agree with Bill that Kendrick's ERA isn't sustainable -- it's at 2.47 this year, and 2.45 since that Aug. 8 cutoff point Bill cites -- but I do think the increased use of the changeup has turned him into a potentially league-average starter. He gets more swings and misses on that pitch from right- and left-handed hitters than he did with the cutter, and the changeup is making the fastball more effective as well.

He hasn't produced as much value to date as some players I left off this redraft, like Ryan Sweeney or Kevin Kouzmanoff, but I'm projecting solid production from him over the next five years.

Kendrick's actual draft spot: No. 205 (seventh round, Phillies)
Kansas City's pick: Mitch Maier, OF, Toledo
*This pick was compensation from the Braves for signing Paul Byrd.